One of the concepts which Charles Handy writes about in The Empty Raincoat is the ‘s’ curve. Here’s an example of one –
We start something new, it develops and grows, then the problems and limitations start to appear so the growth flattens out, and in the final stage, decline sets in.
Handy says
It’s one of the paradoxes of success that the things and the ways which got you where you are, are seldom the things that keep you there.
In other words, when things are going well, we shouldn’t become complacent thinking that we’ve got it all sussed. If we want to keep growing (and if we don’t we’ll start to shrink or decline) then we have to change what we’re doing now. The future will be different from both the past and the present.
An example of this from medical practice would be the treatment of an individual with a chronic illness. The doctor might find some therapies which are helpful eg some particular drugs which work for this patient, but, as time passes, those therapies won’t be so helpful any more.
I find the idea of “proven” or “unproven” treatments to be very unhelpful. Not only because no treatment will work for every patient, so a treatment is only “proven” for that person when we see how things turn out for them, but that because everyone is always changing, what works now, what is “proven” now, will stop working, or at least stop working so well, as time passes.
If we are to continue to improve and to grow we need to understand the reality of this ‘s-curve’ and as
it’s easy to explain things looking backwards, we think we can then predict them forwards
we soon find that the next phase, the new medicine, the new way of doing things, will be quite unlike the present – related to the present and emerging from the present – but different.
Bob,
Handy’s quote is right on the money, and it sounds very much like Einstein’s comment on the mind that created the problem isn’t the one that is going to solve it. And to continue in this vein, wasn’t it Will Rogers who said, If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?
That s curve does sterling duty. I’ve used it to demonstrate the creative incubation period which I am calling the “Slow Zone.” You might be interested in my recent article on creativity and slow, commissioned by iMedia Connection, an online industry magazine. http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/17764.asp
But the s curve does not have to run its course. There comes an inflection point at which a new beginning happens, and this can happen at any stage for a concept, product, organization, and perhaps not for an individual biological life, but there is always the birth of the offspring. That’s a new beginning. And as for new beginnings, I’ve started to outline my book on creativity. This is helpful stuff. Thank you.
Hey, nice to see you back, Christopher, and great to hear about your plans for a new book. Thanks for the link in this comment – I really enjoyed reading your article. You’re SUCH a good writer. I always enjoy reading your articles – I love the ideas, the insights and, especially, the humour. Glad I’ve posted something that helps you go, slowly, where you want to go…….Have a great, slow, creative, new year!
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